cum hoc ergo propter hoc

Posted: February 10, 2015 in Uncategorized

Latin much? Today’s title is a Latin phrase. When one puts the title into the Google translate app(which is a pretty cool app for the I phone) one gets “with this, therefore because of this”. If you have taken a statistics course I am certain you have heard of the “false cause” fallacy.
For those of us who have not taken a statistics course let me try to, explain this fallacy. Two factors rise together and one assumes that cause and effect are happening however what is happening is not cause and effect but merely correlation. See correlation in statistics is defined as:
interdependence of variable quantities.
the process of establishing a relationship or connection between two or more measures.
There was a study done and published in 1999. The study pointed out the hat children who have slept with the lights on developed were more likely to develop myopia. Later it was realized that parents passed myopia onto their children ad parents with myopia genes were more likely to leave the lights on. So leaving the lights on while our children sleep will not make them blind.
Why am I mentioning all this? Well early this month I read this quote

“I have heard of many tragic cases of walking, talking normal children who wound up with profound mental disorders after vaccines,” –Rand Paul
To this I must say “Correlation does not imply causation”. I guess. Unless you are a politician. But as a parent please know that, vaccines are good. A study linking vaccines and a study linking vaccines to autism was retracted and a fraud. Please get your children vaccinated.

It can be easy to read a study or meet a person and come to a snap judgement, but the easy way is usually not the right way. Learn and dig and decide.

Peace
John3c

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